The trend over 50 years is more convenience, more users, and lower costs.
GENERATION I - Discrete transistors:
Mainframes numbering in the hundreds, $1M - $30M.
GENERATION II - Integrated circuits:
Minicomputers numbering in the thousands, $20K - $500K
GENERATION III - Microprocessors:
Desktop PCs and notebooks numbering in the tens of millions, $500 - $5K
Desktop sales have been declining for 36 months
Notebook sales growth has slowed from high teens to high single digits.
NVidia lost $120M in the last quarter.
INTEL's highest profile and most financially important CPU is its slowest rather than its fastest. (ATOM)
GENERATION IV - Merged CPU/RAM ?:
Netbooks and beyond, numbering in the hundreds of millions, $50 - $300
Future of the Computer Industry
1. - Convenient- portable, thin, lightweight, low power, long battery life
2. - Inexpensive- expendable and possibly disposable
3. - Responsive- instant-on, instant-off, instant-applications (Flash RAM)
4. - Wireless- networking & peripheral connectivity (Wi-Fi, Bluetooth)
5. - Position aware- (GPS, RFID)
6. - Intuitive Operation- (iPod, iPhone, Google Chrome)
7. - First, second, and third world users.
Gone are: CDs, DVDs, hard drives, wired routers, wired headsets, power cords, and Windows.
Going are: keyboards, replaced by touch and voice.
Application Usage Today - Tomorrow
browser - 90% 100%
email - 70% 20%
text chat - 50% 80%
media player - 50% 90%
text processor - 40% 20%
games - 30% 60%
spread sheet - 10% 5%
VoIP -10% 90%
database - 5% 2%
positioning - 5% 70%
compiler - .05% .02%