Computer Industry Progress

Russell Fish

The trend over 50 years is more convenience, more users, and lower costs.

GENERATION I - Discrete transistors:

Mainframes numbering in the hundreds, $1M - $30M.

GENERATION II - Integrated circuits:

Minicomputers numbering in the thousands, $20K - $500K

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Digital_Equipment_Corporation

GENERATION III - Microprocessors:

Desktop PCs and notebooks numbering in the tens of millions, $500 - $5K

Fun Facts:

Desktop sales have been declining for 36 months

Notebook sales growth has slowed from high teens to high single digits.

NVidia lost $120M in the last quarter.

INTEL's highest profile and most financially important CPU is its slowest rather than its fastest.  (ATOM)

GENERATION IV - Merged CPU/RAM ?:

Netbooks and beyond, numbering in the hundreds of millions, $50 - $300

Future of the Computer Industry

1. - Convenient- portable, thin, lightweight, low power, long battery life

2. - Inexpensive- expendable and possibly disposable

3. - Responsive- instant-on, instant-off, instant-applications (Flash RAM)

4. - Wireless- networking & peripheral connectivity (Wi-Fi, Bluetooth)

5. - Position aware- (GPS, RFID)

6. - Intuitive Operation- (iPod, iPhone, Google Chrome)

7. - First, second, and third world users.

Gone are: CDs, DVDs, hard drives, wired routers, wired headsets, power cords, and Windows.

Going are: keyboards, replaced by touch and voice.

Application Usage Today - Tomorrow

browser - 90%  100%

email - 70% 20%

text chat - 50%  80%

media player - 50%  90%

text processor - 40%  20%

games - 30%  60%

spread sheet - 10%  5%

VoIP -10%  90%

database - 5%  2%

positioning - 5%  70%

compiler - .05%  .02%